Objective To construct a prediction model of high load axillary lymph node metastasis (ALNM) in breast cancer based on multiple ultrasound characteristic parameters.
Methods According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, a retrospective study was conducted on the clinical data of 250 patients with breast cancer who underwent preoperative ultrasound examinations (conventional ultrasound, acoustic radiation force impulse imaging, automated breast volume scanner, and contrast-enhanced ultrasound) in the Longyan First Hospital between January 2020 and June 2024. The patients were divided into a training group (n=175) and a validation group (n=75) at a ratio of 7∶3. The risk factors of high load ALNM in breast cancer patients of the training group were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The prediction model was constructed accordingly and the nomogram was drawn. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to evaluate the discrimination degree and calibration degree of the model. Clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical net benefit. The model was verified by the data of the validation group.
Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that lesion edge maximum shear wave velocity (SWVmax) (OR=2.742, 95%CI: 1.175-6.399) , lymphatic contrast-enhanced ultrasound (LCEUS) enhancement type (Ⅲ-Ⅳ type) (OR=11.993, 95%CI: 4.407-32.632) , intravenous contrast-enhanced ultrasound (ICEUS) enhancement type (concentric/mixed type) (OR=10.424, 95%CI: 3.583-30.326) , portal structure disappearance of sentinel lymph node (SLN) (OR=12.305, 95%CI: 2.758-54.901) , and blood flow of SLN edge (OR=5.280, 95%CI: 1.852-15.050) were predictive factors of high load ALNM in the training group. Based on this, a nomogram model was constructed and the model formula was as follow: Logit (P) =1 009×lesion edge SWVmax+1.664×blood flow of SLN edge flow+2.510×SLN portal structure disappearance+2.344×ICEUS enhancement type (concentric/mixed type) +2.484×LCEUS enhancement type (Ⅲ-Ⅳ type) -7.276. In the training group, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the prediction model was 0.920 (95%CI: 0.878-0.962), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed a chi-square value of 6.951 (P=0.542) . In the validation group, the AUC was 0.907 (95%CI: 0.842-0.973), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test manifested a chi-square value of 8.965 (P=0.345). DCA results showed that when the threshold probabilities were 3%-97% and 8%-95% in the training group and validation group, the model could be used as a reference to obtain net benefits.
Conclusion The prediction model based on lesion edge SWVmax, LCEUS enhancement type (Ⅲ-Ⅳ type) , ICEUS enhancement type (concentric/mixed type) , SLN portal structure disappearance and blood flow of SLN edge has a high predictive ability for high load ALNM in breast cancer patients.